2011 March 05

Forrás: http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/what-proact-traders-sees-in-the-forex-starting-the-week-of-march-6th-%25202011-%25E2%2580%2593-74128

The market moved to the .786 fibo and stopped after the reaction to NFP.  We expect a small pullback to square up near the 1.3921 area and then continued pressure to move to the upper targets. We have confluence at the R6 and 4.236 Fib extensions at 1.4073.  There is a resistance line @ 1.4278 which is a great target for next week.

Forrás: "Forex szignál" <support@forex-szignal.hu>

Trichet beszéde, miszerint a kamatlábemelés hamarosan bekövetkezhet felfelé katapultálta az EUR/USD párt. Egyfelől jelző értékű volt a szóválasztás miszerint az EKB „különösen figyelmes” lesz, másrészt kikerülte a kifejezéseket, hogy a jelenlegi nívó megfelelő lenne, s sejtetni engedte, hogy a kamatlábemelés már a következő ülésen bekövetkezhet. Mint tudjuk Trichet sosem beszél egyértelmű tényekről, hanem minden szavát patikamérlegre téve nagyon óvatosan fogalmaz. Ha ezt „lefordítjuk” azt jelenti: ha semmi különös nem történik, Április 7-én 25 bázisponttal emelik a vezető kamatlábat.
Szóval az EKB megcsinálja, a Bank of England talán már a következő héten megelőzheti ezt, a Svájci Nemzeti Bank már Március 17.-én megteheti ugyanezt. Egyszóval érdekes hetek elé nézünk. Egyelőre minden jel arra mutat, hogy a FED egyelőre még mindig kivár.
Nézzük az egyes párokat:
EURUSD
Az Euro minden bizonnyal folytatja rallyját 1.4140, majd az előző csúcsig 1.4282-nél, esetleg tovább megtámadva az 1.43-as kulcsfontosságú ellenállást. Bár ahogy láthatjuk, a levegő egyre ritkul.

A kitörési szint 1.3850-1.3860 körül, majd a kerek 1.39-es Pivot erős támaszként működhet. Nem kizárt, hogy a pár először idáig visszalép, majd lendületet véve indul ismét északnak.
 
1.3830/60 alatt veszélybe kerülhet a fenti szcenárió, innen további visszalépésekre számíthatunk 1.3700 - 1.3714, majd 1.3635 - 1.3648 környékére. Ez ugyan elsötétíti a képet, komoly veszélyt a bikás szentimentre azonban csak 1.3620 alatt számíthatunk. Ha ez a szint elesne 1.3525 - 1.3535, majd 1.3400 - 1.3440 kerül a fókuszba.
Heti videóelemzésünket a szokásos helyen találja:
http://www.forex-szignal.hu/elemzesek-videon/blog

Jó helyek

http://www.forexpros.com/

2011 March 04

Forrás: http://www.forexpros.com/technical/analysis/fbs%253A-eur%252Fusd-may-rise-to-13-month-high-%2528bnp-paribas%2529-74120

Technical analysts at BNP Paribas believe that the single currency may rise to the 13-month maximum versus US dollar if it manages to overcome resistance at the $1.40 level representing 80% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1.4282 on November 4 to $1.2867 on January 10.
The specialists claim that after getting above $1.40 the pair EUR/USD may go up until full retracement rising to $1.43 and to $1.4450.
According to BNP Paribas, above $1.43 there is a downtrend line from the euro’s record maximum at $1.6038 in July 2008 and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from November 2009 to June 2010.

EUR/USD árfolyamtörténet és elemzések

Forrás: http://www.earnforex.com/blog/2011/03/eurusd-goes-higher-as-construction-spending-contracts/

EUR/USD Goes Higher as Construction Spending Contracts

March 1st, 2011

EUR/USD advanced today as the signs of slower economic recovery in the US spurred the speculation that the Federal Reserve will stick to its quantitative easing program, while the European Central Bank may raise its interest rates. Some analysts think, though, that the talks about higher interest rates in Europe aren’t based on the fundamentals and are nothing but optimistic rhetoric. EUR/USD trades at 1.3826 now.
ISM PMI advanced to 61.4% in February, rising for 19th consecutive month. Analysts expected the index to be at 60.9%, almost unchanged from the January value of 60.8%. (Event A on the chart.)
Construction spending declined 0.7% in January. The decline was smaller than the December drop by 1.6% (revised from 2.5%), but bigger than predicted 0.4% contraction. (Event A on the chart.)

Forrás: http://www.bkforexadvisors.com/kathy-lien/eurusd-headed-for-140-after-ecb/

EUR/USD Headed for 1.40 after ECB?

By Kathy Lien • March 3rd, 2011

The EUR/USD ripped higher after ECB President Trichet telegraphed a possible rate hike next month. The rise in oil prices has hit a cord with the central bank, prompting them to step on the accelerator and get moving with curbing inflation pressures. Not only did Trichet use the magic words “strong vigilance,” but to remove any uncertainty, he said point blank that “Vigilance means rates may rise next month , increasing rates in April meeting possible.”
Regardless of how much Trichet tried to tone down this comment later on by saying it is not appropriate to expect a “big rate move,” and they are not ready to embark on a “series of rate hikes,” the mere prospect of a rate hike is very positive for the euro. Even if the EUR/USD does not take out 1.40 today, it should just be a matter of time before it does so. Based upon Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments earlier this week, the U.S. central bank is still straddling the fence in terms of normalizing monetary policy. In contrast, the ECB has sent a very clear signal to the market that rates will increased over the next 1 to 2 months. This dynamic should cause the dollar to continue to underperform against the euro.
The race is now between the ECB and BoE and the way its looking, the ECB could be the next central bank to raise interest rates. The central bank upgraded its inflation forecast for 2011 to 2.0 - 2.6% from 1.3-2.3% forecast in Dec and their 2011 GDP forecast to 1.3-2.1% vs. 0.7-2.1%.


http://forums.babypips.com/fundamental-ville/26002-daily-economic-commentary-united-states-44.html#post246622

The dollar was pushed and tugged all over the charts as the markets scrambled to get their bearings ahead of today’s big NFP report. On one hand, it was able to gain ground against the yen, with USD/JPY rising 48 pips to 82.37. But on the other hand, it lost big time to the euro as EUR/USD rose another 94 pips to end at 1.3960.

Yesterday’s good news did little to guide dollar traders to a single direction. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped from 388,000 to 368,000. The fact that it beat forecasts, which had the number rising to 394,000, suggests that the labor market is beginning to pick up steam. Now, I’m not the type that gets easily excited, but I do believe this recent trend we’re seeing should make markets more optimistic for the job market in the near future.

Adding to the good news was the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which one-upped forecasts by raising its reading from 59.4 to 59.7 in January, rather than the expected 59.6 figure. This sort of improvement is exactly what you’d like to see ahead of the NFP report because the services sector is the most important driver of employment.

I’m pretty sure today’s NFP report had something to do with the markets indecisiveness yesterday! It can be difficult to take a stance on the dollar right before the release of one of the biggest monthly reports.

If you read Forex Gump’s guide to today's NFP, then you’ll know that it has failed to meet forecasts for the past three months. But things are looking up this time around. February has potential to score a nice improvement from January’s figures because of January’s bad winter weather.

So this time around, we may see better-than-expected results than the forecasted 180,000 net increase in jobs. In turn, this is expected to result in a slightly higher unemployment rate of 9.1%, up from 9.0% in January. Strap your trading hats on and get ready to rumble at 1:30 pm GMT!

FÓRUMHELY: http://forums.babypips.com/eurusd/

TANÁCSADÓ BLOG: http://www.fibonaccifx.com/fibonacci-fx-signals/